Import substitution of the hottest machinery and h

2022-09-23
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Machinery: high-end equipment import substitution brings investment opportunities

Machinery: high-end equipment import substitution brings investment opportunities

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the reduction of economic and investment growth means that the growth rate of capital intensive industries and labor-intensive industries that are highly related to fixed asset investment will slow down, while the growth rate of technology intensive high-end equipment manufacturing industry will accelerate. From the 12th Five Year Plan, China's high-end equipment import substitution is expected to enter a rapid stage

the reduction of economic and investment growth means that the growth rate of capital intensive industries and labor-intensive industries that are highly related to fixed asset investment will slow down, while the growth of technology intensive high-end equipment manufacturing industry will accelerate. Starting from the "12th Five Year Plan", China's import substitution of high-end equipment is expected to enter a rapid stage. At this stage, high-end equipment with high technical content includes sub industries such as engineering machinery, heavy mining machinery, railway equipment, new energy equipment, high-end CNC machine tools, petrochemical machinery, and Mechanical basic parts

Premier Wen Jiabao said at the beginning of this year that the "12th Five Year Plan" has set China's economic development rate at 7%, and we should focus on improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth. It can be predicted that the economic growth will slow down significantly during the 12th Five Year Plan period, and the GDP growth rate may be reduced from about 9.7% this year to less than 9% next year

after reducing the economic growth rate, the country will more calmly adjust the fixed asset investment with real estate regulation and infrastructure investment regulation as the content. The goal of the adjustment is to transform the extensive economic growth driven by investment and export into the economic growth mainly characterized by the upgrading of industries driven by consumption. It can be predicted that the growth rate of investment will slow down significantly during the 12th Five Year Plan period, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2012 will be basically the same as this year, maintaining at about 23.0%

under the condition that the investment growth rate is flat and the export growth rate slows down, the consumption growth rate will increase significantly. The contribution of investment and export will continue to decrease, and the contribution of consumption will continue to increase. This trend has been obvious in the first three quarters of this year. China's export growth rate in September was 17.1%, 7.4 percentage points lower than that in August; Fixed asset investment increased by 24.9% in the first three quarters, down 0.1 percentage points from August; In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 17% year-on-year, and the contribution rate to GDP reached 47.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the first half of the year. It is expected that this trend will continue during the 12th Five Year Plan period

high end equipment has entered the accelerated stage of import substitution

the reason why the high-end equipment manufacturing industry will face greater opportunities of import substitution during the 12th Five Year Plan period is that the main driving forces are as follows:

first, China's machinery products still have a high degree of import dependence. In general, internal combustion engines, instruments and meters, office supplies and food machinery are highly dependent on imports. However, almost every sub industry's high-end products depend on imports, such as more than 70% of high-power tractors and high-end rice and corn harvesters in agricultural machinery need to be imported or rely on foreign-funded enterprises, more than 80% of high-power high-speed machines in internal combustion engines need to be imported, more than 60% of high-power pump valves and reactors in petrochemical machinery need to be imported, and more than 95% of high-end CNC machine tools in machine tools need to be imported, More than 90% of the high-pressure hydraulic pumps in the basic parts need to be imported. High import dependence provides a huge space for import substitution

second, the competitiveness of high-end equipment manufacturing industry has been greatly improved. Over the past three decades of reform and opening up, China's basic manufacturing industry has made significant progress in technology and management, which has provided conditions for the progress of China's high-end equipment manufacturing industry. At present, China has made major breakthroughs in import substitution in the fields of wind power and nuclear power equipment, large petrochemical equipment, engineering machinery, heavy mining machinery, etc., and many products have begun to enter the rapid growth stage of import substitution. As shown in the figure below, the future international competitive potential and import dependence determine the future progress of import substitution in this industry. In the next five years, China has great competitive potential in the fields of construction machinery, heavy mining machinery, petrochemical general machinery and basic parts, and is expected to achieve a substantial increase in import substitution

third, the high-end equipment manufacturing industry is the high-end part of the equipment manufacturing industry, with prominent characteristics such as technology intensive, high added value, large growth space and so on; It is a symbol of a country's strategic industry and industrial rise; It is the foundation and core competitiveness of a country's manufacturing industry. During the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, the state has successively issued the "several opinions of the State Council on accelerating the revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry" and the "plan for the adjustment and revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry", starting the revitalization of China's high-end equipment manufacturing industry. Stepping into the track of rapid growth, in the "decision of the State Council on accelerating the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industry experimental machines is often a number of high-load tasks" issued in October 2010, the high-end equipment manufacturing industry has been identified as the seven major strategic emerging industry that China will focus on cultivating and developing at this stage, and will develop into a pillar industry of the national economy by 2020. The 12th Five Year Plan for high-end equipment manufacturing led by the Ministry of industry and information technology has been basically completed and is expected to be issued in the near future. According to the goal of the plan, by 2015, the sales output value of high-end equipment will account for more than 20% of the equipment manufacturing industry, and the annual sales output value will reach 6 trillion yuan. In the next ten years, the operation of plastic granulator will touch a wide range of fields. The high-end equipment manufacturing industry will shoulder the heavy responsibility from "made in China" to "made in China", and will usher in a golden growth period

general machinery and basic parts have the greatest opportunities

as the contribution rate of investment will decrease and the contribution rate of consumption will increase in the next five years, we believe that the investment opportunities of machinery manufacturing industry closely related to fixed asset investment, such as construction machinery, will decrease, while industries closely related to fixed asset investment, import substitution and industrial upgrading of manufacturing industry will have more investment opportunities. Due to the structure of downstream industries and the rapid import substitution and upgrading of general machinery and basic parts, more investment opportunities will be generated

general machinery is an important part of equipment manufacturing industry and plays a very important role in national economic construction. It is responsible for providing systematic complete sets of technical equipment for the petroleum, chemical and modern coal chemical industries to make breakthroughs and transformations, as well as petrochemical industries, while providing auxiliary machinery for electric power, metallurgy, shipbuilding, military, light industry, textile, pharmaceutical and other industries. General machinery involves compressors, fans, pumps, valves, air separation units, separation machinery, drying equipment, gas purification equipment, vacuum equipment, reducer and various special equipment. Its technical level determines the operation level of production units in chemical, petrochemical, electric power, metallurgy, shipbuilding, military, light industry, textile, medicine and other industries

mechanical basic parts have a wide range of varieties and specifications, mainly including bearings, gears, molds, hydraulic parts, pneumatic components, seals, fasteners, etc. they provide supporting equipment for aerospace, weapons, machinery manufacturing, transportation, construction engineering, metallurgy and mining, petrochemical industry, power energy, electronic communication, light industry and textile, and are an indispensable part of the equipment manufacturing industry, It directly determines the performance, level, quality and reliability of major equipment and host products. It is a crucial link to revitalize the equipment manufacturing industry

the downstream industries of general machinery and basic parts are mainly concentrated in the productive demand of manufacturing industry, and have little direct correlation with fixed asset investment. While the fixed asset investment with infrastructure and real estate as the main content will face a slowdown in the future, and the fixed asset investment in the manufacturing industry is expected to maintain a high growth rate, general machinery and infrastructure will have a stronger downstream demand

in terms of output value, the output value of the top ten sub industries of the machinery industry in 2010 was more than 1.20 trillion yuan except general machinery and basic parts, and other sub industries were all below 0.9 trillion yuan. At the same time, due to the low localization rate of general machinery and basic parts, there is a huge space for import substitution. The output value of general machinery in 2010 is 1.22 trillion yuan, the localization rate will be about 80%, and the import substitution space will exceed 240 billion yuan; The output value of the basic parts industry reached 1.28 trillion yuan in 2010, with a localization rate of about 79% and import substitution space of about 268.8 billion yuan

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