The hottest LUZHENG futures wait for positive stim

2022-10-14
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LUZHENG Futures: waiting for positive incentives to stimulate the future market of PTA

I. market description

on August 26 (Tuesday), PTA experienced a general rise today after yesterday's decline. Among them, the main contract 811 showed a wide range of fluctuations, with a slight rise and fall at the late opening price of 8280 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, driven by short replenishment and liquidation, the futures price rose, with a maximum of 8360 yuan/ton, a minimum of 8218 yuan/ton and a closing price of 8336 yuan/ton, Compared with the previous trading day, it increased by 92 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous day, the trading volume was enlarged to 79874 hands, and the position was significantly reduced by 6354 hands to 31302 hands. The main short sellers reduced their positions significantly

II. Analysis of market causes

the overnight price of October crude oil futures in New York closed up $1.16 to $116.27 a barrel, naphtha fell $38 to $per ton CFR Japan, and PX in Asia fell $5 to $per ton FOB South Korea. If crude oil prices can rebound, there is little room for naphtha and PX prices to fall, which can also show the cost support role of PTA

influenced by the decline of futures prices on Monday, PTA prices in the spot market continue to fall. The mainstream of high-quality spot in the inner market is reported at yuan/ton, the mainstream negotiation transaction price is at yuan/ton, and the outer market also falls. The mainstream of Taiwan and South Korea cargo spot is reported to the United States. 1. After the rubber slicer enters the factory inspection, it is reported at yuan/ton, and the mainstream negotiation transaction is in USD/ton

the polyester market continues to show signs of warming. The overall market of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is stable, the polyester short market is good, and the manufacturer's quotation has been raised. It is absolutely "beneficial and profitable" to eliminate the smell hated by Chinese users, and the focus has been shifted upward. The terminal textile industry is about to enter the autumn and winter market in September, and it is reported that the government is brewing more preferential policies to support small and medium-sized enterprises, which is also good news for textile enterprises, which is expected to form a phased support for PTA futures prices

There are a number of scientific and technological innovation enterprises such as Ningwu and Gangfeng

to sum up, crude oil in the upstream market is basically in a consolidation state, and there are signs of recovery in the downstream market. PTA demand is expected to increase. Once crude oil can have a decent rebound, provide cost support, or have other good news, mankind will no longer have the problem of food shortage, and PTA futures prices must have room to rise

III. future research and judgment

from the perspective of disk, the position of 811 contract has been significantly reduced, the main short sellers have significantly reduced their positions, and the space for futures prices to fall is limited

in terms of operation, the short-term operation of 811 contract can be interval operation, and the interval of 8100-8400 points should be paid attention to within the day; For medium and long-term bargain hunting, you can try a small number of multiple orders, with the first target of 8570 points

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